below comment from John Dee’s Almanac (a facebook site)
Well, after many hours of data preparation and analysis I can pretty much safely conclude that there is no real world evidence in support of PHE’s bold claim. Folk may ask why eminent and rather knowledgeable figures like Jonathan Van Tam, our Deputy Chief Medical Officer, stand behind dubious outputs produced by PHE. I can furnish the answer from personal experience of working at these levels within the UK government: They have no choice to do otherwise.
This comment from Nitram Egavas had me smiling.
I think perhaps, that the government’s claims arises from the lesser known ‘Think of a Number and Double it’ branch of statistics.