The Shadows

from John Dee’s facebook site

Intelligence Test

A surprising number of people don’t get the more tests = more cases relationship. The way I tackle this in real life is to get folk engaged in a simple question and answer session. If the penny doesn’t drop then the light maybe on but there’s nobody home, so I don’t waste any further time.

Here are two basic scripts that I use…

Script 1 for the more numerate:

Q1: If 10% of the population have COVID and we test 10 people on a Monday how many cases are we likely to find?

Q2: Given the same situation, if we now test 100 people on a Tuesday how many cases are we likely to find?

Q3: Has the number of cases risen?

Q4: Correct! But does this mean that the disease has spread?

Q5: So what information do we need apart from the number of cases to determine if the disease has spread?

Q6: What information does the government provide on a daily basis?

Q7: What information should the government provide on a daily basis?

Script 2 for the less numerically able:

Q1: If I go and test 10 people how many positive cases can I possibly count?

Q2: If I go and test 100 people how many positive cases can I possibly count?

Q3: One hundred is bigger than ten, right? Does this mean there’s more disease about?